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Web Exclusive | February 2013

BP expects growth in coal demand to slowdown

According to a project by the BP World Energy Outlook 2030, India may witness a gradual slowdown in the demand for coal between 2011 and 2030.

The report expects growth in demand for the fossil fuel to decline 3.6 per cent every year during 2011-2030 from 6.5 per cent a year in 2000-10. This is because energy efficiency gains partially offset rising energy demand for industrial and infrastructure expansion.

However, on an absolute basis, India's demand for coal may surpass that of the USA in 2024, the outlook shows.

India and China would account for almost 93 per cent of the net growth in demand by 2030, the report estimates. The combined share of global coal consumption in these two Asian countries would rise from 57 per cent in 2011 to 65 per cent in 2030, BP said.

While China and India may need a lot more imports to keep growing, the USA will not be increasingly dependent on energy imports, said Bob Dudley, Chief Executive of BP Group.

Coal demand in China decelerates rapidly from 9 per cent a year in 2000-10 to 3.5 per cent every year this decade and 0.4 per cent each year in 2020-30. This is due to shift to less coal-intensive economic activities and by energy improvements.

Interestingly, coal consumption for electricity generation has seen a slide. The growth has reduced from 3.6 per cent a year in 2000-10 to 2.4 per cent in 2011-20 and would further dip to 0.4 per cent after 2020.

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